“China’s defense industry recorded strong growth in 2004, with revenue climbing more than 25 percent, while seven military-controlled companies issued public shares, state media reported Tuesday. The value of defense industry production for civilian use rose 26.8 percent from a year ago to 165.6 billion yuan ($20 billion), the official Xinhua News Agency reported. Revenue earned by defense companies rose 26.4 percent, the report said without giving dollar figures. Military-run companies increasingly are raising funds in domestic share markets and are expanding into overseas markets, Xinhua said, citing Jin Zhuanglong, spokesman for the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense.” Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 1/26/05, p. 2C
JAPAN COURAGEOUSLY RESPONDS TO CHICOM INTIMIDATION
“Japan’s growing economic dependence on China would seem to point toward a greater deference from Tokyo. But political and military affairs have risen in importance in the region, and for Japan’s government they may now be edging out economic concerns. As a result, many here say, it makes sense for Tokyo to bolster Taiwan, a convenient buffer state that absorbs the military hostility and expansive energy of its rival.
“To the east of Taiwan, Japanese islands already feel Chinese pressure: Chinese drilling last fall for gas in an area claimed by Japan, a Chinese submarine caught in November trying to slip through Japanese territorial waters, and a continuing effort by China to have a Japanese island declared a rock, a legal strategy that would deprive Japan of thousands of square miles of economic rights.“
TAIWAN SECURITY BOLSTERED BY TOKYO
“Discarding the language of diplomacy, Hatsuhisa Takashima, the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of Japan, said in an interview on Monday that the inclusion of Taiwan in the security list was a consequence of those actions. China has been increasing its military budget by 10 percent annually for the past 10 years, continued Mr. Takashima, whose government is actually cutting its defense spending this year. …”
BUT NIPPON CONSTITUTION PROHIBITS MILITARY ACTION
“Briefing reporters in Washington on Saturday, Mr. Takashima, the Japanese spokesman, said that in the event of war between Taiwan and China, Japan would limit itself to providing logistical support, saying: ‘Surely, Japan would support American action, but we wouldn’t join the military action itself. It is prohibited by the Constitution.’ ” Source: From Tokyo, James Brooke, The New York Times, 2/22/05, p. A9
CHICOM THREAT TO NUKE AMERICA WAS CALCULATED
“When Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu of the People’s Liberation Army warned last week that U.S. military ‘interference’ in a conflict over Taiwan could lead to a Chinese nuclear attack on the U.S., he reinforced every worst fear of a ‘China threat.’ What’s worse, indeed almost comical, is that he made the comment to me and a handful of other foreign correspondents who had been invited here by Beijing in an effort to improve China’s international image.
“Recent warnings about Beijing’s military buildup suddenly took on a very real significance, and the cloud cast by the general’s threat is likely to intensify pressure on the Bush administration to take a tougher line with China over everything from Cnooc’s bid for Unocal to revaluation of the yuan.
“Despite these potentially devastating consequences, it was clear to those of us who witnessed last Thursday’s [July 14] warning that it was no accidental outburst. I’d been asking about possible Chinese tactics in the event of a conventional war over Taiwan, when the general responded to my question by raising the stakes dramatically:”
TAIWAN STRAITS ARE CLAIMED AS “CHINESE TERRITORY”
” ‘According to the balance of power between the United States and China we have no capability to fight a conventional war against the United States,’ the PLA hard-liner told me. ‘If the Americans interfere into the conflict, if the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition into the target zone on China’s territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons.’ “
WARSHIPS ARE SEEN AS “CHINESE TERRITORY”
“Almost too stunned to respond, I offered Gen. Zhu a chance to back down – or at least qualify the circumstances under which China would unleash its nuclear missiles against ‘hundreds of, or two hundreds’ of American cities. Presumably, I suggested, he was only talking about the unlikely scenario of a U.S. attack on mainland Chinese soil. No, the general replied, a nuclear response would be justified even if it was just a conventional attack on a Chinese aircraft or warship – something very likely if Washington honored its commitment to help defend Taiwan against an invasion by Beijing.”
“NO FIRST USE” OF NUKES WOULD NOT APPLY
“A fellow correspondent offered Gen. Zhu another escape route, reminding him that China had a longstanding policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. But the general brushed that aside as well, saying the policy could be changed and was only really intended to apply to conflicts with nonnuclear states in any case. Afterward he made only half-hearted efforts to dissuade us from publishing what he insisted was purely his personal view and said he thought there was unlikely to be a war. …
“[I]f the likes of Gen. Zhu are prepared to contemplate the ‘destruction of all [Chinese] cities east of Xian’ in order to capture democratic Taiwan – which Beijing insists is part of China – they are unlikely to lose any sleep if outrage over his remarks derails Cnooc’s bid for Unocal.“
THIS IS “OLD NEWS”
“A self-professed ‘warmonger,’ the general has often previously warned of a nuclear war over Taiwan – most recently at a panel discussion earlier this year with Admiral Dennis Blair, the former commander-in-chief of the U.S. Pacific Command, and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Chas. Freeman. …
“[T]he general’s career hasn’t suffered from his outspokenness. He was promoted two ranks in 2004 and continues to meet foreign visitors despite his habit of making controversial remarks. Even if Gen. Zhu’s views don’t represent official policy, China’s top brass evidently see advantages in allowing such sentiments to be disseminated to an international audience.”
THIS WAS NOT AN ISOLATED THREAT
“Nor is he the only Chinese general to have warned of nuclear war if the U.S. comes to Taiwan’s defense. Senior Col. Luo Yuan, of the Academy of Military Science, has voiced similar sentiments. So too has Gen. Xiong Guangkai, now the PLA’s deputy chief of general staff, who was famously quoted as warning Mr. Freeman in1995 that Americans ‘care more about Los Angeles than you do about Taipei.’ ” Source: From Beijing, Danny Gittings, The Wall Street Journal, 7/18/05, p. 13
CHICOMS WOULD NUKE AMERICA TO CONQUER TAIWAN
“Dismissing this as Marxist bravado would be a tragic mistake. China is preparing for a war with us and will not hesitate to use any means to achieve its strategic objectives.
“Gen. Zhu, a professor at China’s National Defense University, calmly told a group of foreign journalists what would happen if America intervened to save Taiwan: ‘We will be determined to respond. We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all cities east of Xian [in central China]. Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds … of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.’
“Gen. Zhu isn’t the first PLA diplomat to threaten nuclear war over Taiwan. In 1995, Gen. Xiong Guangkai, now deputy chief of the general staff, told a former Pentagon official he was sure the U.S. would think twice about supporting Taiwan in a military confrontation, because Americans ‘cared more about losing Los Angeles’ than saving Taipei. …
“This is a regime fully prepared to sacrifice millions of its own people to achieve its geopolitical objectives – which extend far beyond Taiwan. The same murderous fanaticism that fueled the Cultural Revolution and sent tanks rolling over demonstrators in Tiananmen Square is alive and well in the Chinese Politburo and inner circles of the People’s Liberation Army. …
“With Taiwan, it will control the sea lane through which much of the world’s shipping passes.” Source: Don Feder, The Washington Times, 7/21/05, p. A16
CHICOM IRBMs ARE MORE DANGEROUS THAN THOSE OF THE SOVIETS
“Those who are fans of the old cowboy movies are familiar with the old bar room scenario in which the one who got his six-shooter out first ruled the bar room. The IRBM is the atomic age equivalent of the bar room six shooter – once in place far more dangerous than the inter-Continental ballistic missile (ICBM), because the time to target is so much shorter than the ICBM.“
ONE SHIPPING CONTAINER IS THE ONLY HOLSTER NEEDED
“The Communist Chinese IRBM is a solid fuel missile that can be packaged in one shipping container, like the trailer trucks on the highway. Most freight today is shipped in these containers.”
PRC CONTROL OF PANAMA PORTS LETS BEIJING SHOOT FIRST
“The Panamanian government has leased the ports of Balboa and Cristobal to Hutchison Whampoa, Ltd., a front and agent of the Communist Chinese military. The Rodman U.S. Naval base was also turned over to them. With between 1,000 and 1,200 shipping containers shuttling each day between Balboa and Cristobal terminals and through the canal, it is a giant ‘shell’ game to determine where any such containers with IRBMs might be.“
RED CHINA’s IRBMs MORE DANGEROUS THAN LIQUID FOR ROCKETS IN CUBA
“The IRBMs that Khrushchev attempted to place in Cuba were liquid-fueled rockets that took longer to prepare to fire. Once discovered, he knew our planes could knock them out before they could be fired. This was what saved us from nuclear holocaust in October 1962.
“The Chinese IRBM is based on stolen U.S. technology. It is a solid-fuel [missile] and can be fired immediately upon opening its shipping container. There isn’t a chance to shoot it down.“
REDS READY TO SACRIFICE MILLIONS
“Long before Communist China had any nuclear capability, they were studying nuclear strategy and population densities, and they made the observation that China was the only country in the world that could lose half of its population in a nuclear confrontation and come out of it stronger than when they went in. They proved at Tiananmen Square that shedding Chinese blood did not bother them. This is the same China that less than 18 months ago threatened Los Angeles with nuclear attack if the U.S. interfered when they move to retake Taiwan.” Source: Frank Turberville, Jr., Military, February 2000, p. 32
Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of May 15, 2005
WOLFOWITZ ASKS CHICOMS IF THEY REALLY MEAN WHAT THEY SAY
“Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz met yesterday with a top Chinese general and other military officials amid growing concern over the rapid buildup of Chinese military forces. …
“Pentagon spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Gregory Hicks said Mr. Wolfowitz had a private conversation with Lt. Gen. Xiong Guangkai, deputy chief of the military staff and leader of the Chinese delegation.
“Gen. Xiong is known widely in U.S. defense circles for his remark in 1995 that contained a veiled threat by China to use nuclear weapons against Los Angeles, if the United States defended the Republic of China (Taiwan) in a conflict. …
“The talks included U.S. requests for a Chinese clarification of a December white paper that called the situation on the Taiwan Strait ‘grim’ and said China is set to ‘crush’ any steps by the island toward formal independence. …”
RED CHINESE AND RED KOREAN MILITARIES ARE TWIN BROTHERS
“China’s military ‘has claimed to be for the past 50 years the institution in China that is most closely aligned with or at least interacts with their peers and contemporaries in the North Korean military,’ the official said. Chinese military officials yesterday refused, as they have in the past, to discuss their ties to the North Korean military, the official said.” Source: Bill Gertz, The Washington Times, 4/29/05, p. A3
RED CHINESE WEAR BLUE BERETS IN HAITI
“On April 4, TV cameras recorded a Chinese Riot Control Police outfit, wearing the ‘Blue Berets of the U.N.,’ marching across the airport tarmac in Port-Au-Prince, Haiti. It is one of many examples of China projecting itself to the far corners of the world.“
BEIJING PREPARES FOR THE FUTURE
“Recent events have focused global opinion short-term on the Chinese military budget, oil demand and standoff with Taiwan and the United States, ignoring long-term implications. With its centrally controlled government, China can closely monitor and influence its military, economic and sociopolitical development and plan 20 to 100 years into the future.
“America’s political leaders too often look only at four- to eight-year terms, ignoring China’s enormity. For example, people dismiss the simple idea 1 in 3 of the world’s people could be Chinese by 2050, all over the globe. Further, Americans especially do not see how a large portion of our conventional military is retooling to deal with low-intensity asymmetrical threats. This, while China’s conventional military power expands every year and concentrates on macrostrategic warfare, including even outer space.“
U.S. IS ABOUT NOW, PRC IS ABOUT THEN
“Immediate concerns over rising world oil prices have obscured the indirect role of China moving into economic high gear with booming oil demand and industrialization. Meanwhile our foreign policy focuses on combating terrorism and spreading real and ersatz democracies.
“Examining these situations and trends stimulates serious concern. Last year, China’s military budget visibly increased 12 percent, with similar upsurges each year over the last decade. Each annual expansion is only a small concern, but this development is ominous and doesn’t include China’s commercial military-industrial performance. …
“China’s money has poured into improving strategic capabilities, including its blue-water navy, air capabilities and modern space communications, reconnaissance and attack systems. These increased capabilities have moved China’s army to shed its militia roots and adopt Western doctrines that integrate technology, joint operations and information warfare. So, as China’s military capabilities become comparable to those of America, conflict could erupt on sea, in the air and in space.”
21ST CENTURY WILL BELONG TO CHICOMS, UNLESS U.S. WAKES UP
“At the current level of growth, China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy in 30 years or less. Huge cash reserves and lucrative markets allow China to forge worldwide commercial ties by enticement and pressure.
“These same economic moves dictate political and diplomatic relationships. In any sort of conflict, it would be very easy for China to leverage its power and coerce nations to its side, as in the classic Sun Tzu adage: ‘The next best plan is to attack the enemy through alliances, forcing the enemy to capitulate.’ “
PHILIPPINES AND VIETNAM ACQUIESCE
“Recent developments show China follows that advice and is slowly moving toward a goal of sole superpowerdom. It recently signed an economic partnership with the Philippines and Vietnam to develop the natural resources of the Spratly Islands, sidestepping turmoil there. These islands are an important center of a long-sought Chinese domination of the South China Sea’s trade routes and resources, a goal that directly challenges U.S. interests in the area. This, coupled with new negotiations with India, show a new direction in thought. Chinese officials say they do not wish to challenge U.S. superpower status, but the scenario above illustrates a strategy of dominance through slow, subtle influence. …”
ECONOMIC BLACKMAIL IS BACKED BY GROWING MILITARY STRENGTH
“American military strategists must address future global and space developments by the Chinese military to counter any potential intimidation. We should curtail trade with the Chinese until they make a commitment to lasting sociopolitical liberalization, while we control our own hemorrhaging trade deficit with them. Trade agreements between China and other nations must be monitored to prevent economic blackmail there, as well.” Source: F. Andrew Messing Jr. (U.S. Army Special Forces retired major and executive director of National Defense Council Foundation (NDCF) and Daniel Perez (NDCF research assistant), The Washington Times, 5/2/05, p. A17
Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of March 15, 2005
CIA’s PORTER GOSS TELLS THE TRUTH ABOUT CHINESE THREAT
“China’s military buildup is ‘tilting the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait’ in ways threatening to the United States, say U.S. intelligence officials, whose blunt comments contrast sharply to past intelligence assessments of the communist country’s capabilities.
” ‘Improved Chinese capabilities threaten U.S. forces in the region,’ CIA Director Porter J. Goss told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Wednesday.
” ‘China continues to develop more robust, survivable nuclear-armed missiles, as well as conventional capabilities for use in regional conflict,’ he said.”
DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE (DIA) ECHOES CIA CONCERNS
“Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in prepared testimony to the panel that China is adding numbers and more capable ballistic missiles to its arsenal to ‘improve their survivability and war-fighting capabilities, enhance their coercion and deterrence value, and overcome ballistic missile defense systems.’
” ‘This effort is commensurate with its growing power and more assertive policies, especially with respect to Taiwan,’ Adm. Jacoby said.”
BEIJING’S GROWING NAVAL POWER IS GREATEST SHORT-TERM THREAT TO U.S. SECURITY
“The officials’ testimony shows an apparent effort to define the danger posed by China’s rising military power, which critics said have been minimized in the past, in part so as not to offend the country with markets coveted by U.S. businesses. The CIA, in particular, has been criticized in the past for underestimating Chinese military and security developments.
“Sen. Susan Collins, Maine Republican, yesterday asked Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing about Mr. Goss’ testimony that ‘sounded the alarm about China’s modernization of its navy.’
“Mr. Rumsfeld said China is boosting defense spending by ‘double-digit’ rates and most of the buildup is being carried out in secret. ‘They’re purchasing a great deal of relatively modern equipment from Russia,’ Mr. Rumsfeld said. ‘And as you point out, they have been expanding their navy and expanding the distances from the People’s Republic of China that their navy ventures.’ …
” ‘If Beijing decides that Taiwan is taking steps toward permanent separation that exceed Beijing’s tolerance, we assess China is prepared to respond with varying levels of force,’ Mr. Goss said.”
RED CHINA’S IRBM, ICBM, AND SLBM NUCLEAR BUILDUP IS WORRISOME
“Adm. Jacoby identified three new missile systems, the DF-31, DF-31A mobile intermediate range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and JL-2 submarine launched missile, noting that by 2015 China will have increased its nuclear warhead arsenal to several times the current level. The DIA estimated in 2000 that China had a total of 157 nuclear warheads for long- and short-range missiles, and will have 464 warheads for its missiles by 2020.” Source: Bill Gertz, The Washington Times, 2/18/05, p. A3
HOORAY FOR JAPAN!
“The United States has long focused attention on the Chinese government’s threat to use military force against Taiwan if the island, which China views as a renegade province, moves toward independence. Until now, Japan has been content to let the United States bear the brunt of Beijing’s displeasure.“
SECURITY IN TAIWAN STRAITS DECLARED TO BE COMMON STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE
“But in the most significant alteration since 1996 to the U.S.-Japan Security Alliance, which remains the cornerstone of U.S. interests in East Asia, Japan will join the Bush administration in identifying security in the Taiwan Strait as a ‘common strategic objective.’ …
“And in December, Japan angered China by granting a tourist visa to former Taiwanese president, Lee Teng-hui, who was educated in Japan and had an emotional reunion here with a former professor. …”
PROBES BY CHINESE COMMUNISTS THREATEN JAPAN’S SECURITY
“Along with the threat of North Korea, which declared itself a nuclear-armed nation last week, the rise of China has become the primary concern fueling Japan’s shift away from nearly six decades of pacifism.
“Japan has generally been inclined to sidestep conflict with China. But in recent years, China has dramatically modernized its military while expanding its sphere of influence in Asia on the strength of its booming economy. The effort to extend its reach has included exploring for natural gas near Japanese-claimed waters only 110 miles north of Taiwan and countering Japan’s claims to exclusive economic zones in the Pacific.
“In response, Japan has also shifted course in the past year, moving to defend its territorial claims in the East China Sea. Last November, Japan dispatched aircraft on a two-day hunt for a Han-class Chinese submarine that briefly intruded into Japan’s far southern waters in what many here saw as a test of Japanese resolve in the event of Chinese aggression against Taiwan.“
SILENCE ABOUT TAIWAN WOULD NOT BE GOLDEN
” ‘It would be wrong for us to send a signal to China that the United States and Japan will watch and tolerate China’s military invasion of Taiwan,’ said Shinzo Abe, the acting secretary general of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party who is widely considered a likely successor to Junichiro Koizumi as prime minister. ‘If the situation surrounding Japan threatens our security, Japan can provide U.S. forces with support.’
“Such talk reflects what diplomats and scholars call the defining drama of East Asia for the 21st century – the competition for economic and political dominance in the region between Japan, the world’s second-largest economy, and China, the world’s most populous nation and a fast-developing economic and military power. …”
ACCESS TO ENERGY AT ISSUE
“The two governments have also battled over the route of a trans-Siberian pipeline for Russian oil and territorial rights in an East China Sea island chain known as the Senkaku in Japanese and the Diaoyu in Chinese.
“The Chinese government granted rights two years ago for domestic and foreign oil companies to explore and drill an area only three miles from Japanese-claimed territory – a region rich in natural gas and oil. This month, Japan pushed back, boosting its claims to the area by officially taking over ownership of a 15-foot lighthouse built on the island chain by Japanese nationalist activists in 1978. …”
RED CHINA PREFERS TO KEEP TOKYO AND D.C. ON THE SIDELINES
“But the idea of Japanese military cooperation with the United States in the sea lanes north of Taiwan has particularly rankled Chinese diplomatic and military planners because it goes to the heart of their Taiwan strategy.
“On the one hand, diplomats and other specialists say, the Chinese military has embarked on a buildup of short-range missiles, naval vessels and electronics-aided aircraft to enable it to threaten the island militarily if President Chen Shui-bian should take what China considers an unacceptably decisive step toward independence. On the other hand, they added, China has set out to improve and extend its maritime and airborne might in the sea lanes north of Taiwan, with the goal of forcing the United States to think twice about military intervention. Within the next five years, according to U.S. estimates, the Chinese navy is expected to have more than 20 modern attack submarines, including half a dozen nuclear-powered vessels.“
JAPAN VOWS TO BE A PRO-ACTIVE ALLY
“Japanese officials said that the official position advocating a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue has not changed. They said the constitution limits the level of assistance that Japan could offer in the event of a U.S. confrontation with China over Taiwan. But the joint statement on Saturday could help lay the groundwork for the Japanese to extend as much cooperation as they legally can, including logistical support such as transportation and medical rescue operations behind the lines of combat, officials said.
” ‘We consider China a friendly country, but it is also unpredictable,’ a senior Japanese government official said. ‘If it takes aggressive action, Japan cannot just stand by and watch.’ ” Source: From Tokyo, Anthony Failoa, The Washington Post, 2/18/05, pp. 1, A26
BUSH’S NAVAL REDUCTION BUDGET IS VERY DANGEROUS
“President Bush’s plan for the Navy calls for buying fewer ships, while China, a potential security hot spot, is increasing and repositioning its fleet. It’s a prospect that concerns some lawmakers. …
“The Pentagon says buying fewer ships than previously planned won’t affect combat ability. Previous budgets envisioned purchasing six Virginia-class attack submarines, seven DD(X) destroyers and 10 San Antonio-class amphibious landing ships through 2011.“
DOWN FROM SIX TO THREE SUBMARINES, SEVEN TO FIVE DESTROYERS, AND ONE LESS CARRIER
“The 2006 budget calls for three submarines, five destroyers and nine landing ships. It also proposes eliminating one of the Navy’s 12 aircraft carriers. … The budget calls for buying fewer planes, ships and submarines in favor of spending more on counterterrorism.”
RED CHINA ADDS, U.S SUBTRACTS
“Republicans and Democrats argued that cutting back now could jeopardize the Navy’s long-term domination of the seas, particularly in light of China’s military improvements. …
” ‘I recognize that our naval fleet still remains the most technologically advanced in the world. But the decreasing number of ships being procured, particularly in the light of the Chinese buildup, really concerns me,’ [Republican Sen. Susan Collins] said.
” ‘Are you concerned about projections that the Chinese fleet may well surpass the American fleet in terms of numbers in just a decade’s time?’
” ‘Senator,’ [Defense Secretary] Rumsfeld replied, ‘it is an issue that the department thinks about and is concerned about and is attentive to.’ …
“China has invested heavily in its own defense in the past few years. Prohibited from buying U.S. and European arms under an embargo, Beijing purchased at least $13 billion worth of weapons from Russia between 1993 and 2003, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. China’s arsenals now are stocked with Russian-made submarines, destroyers, supersonic fighters and anti-ship missiles, as well as weapons it increasingly is making on its own.
“CIA Director Porter Goss told the Senate Intelligence Committee this week that China last year increased its ballistic missile forces and rolled out several new submarines. ‘Improved Chinese capabilities threaten U.S. forces in the region,’ Goss said. … Rumsfeld has said, China is moving its naval vessels farther from its shores.
“Rep. Randy Forbes, R-Va., told Rumsfeld during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday that he recently returned from China with ‘a big concern’ about the U.S. fleet after he witnessed China’s naval buildup.
“ ‘We looked at their steel mills,’ Forbes said. ‘They’re throwing out steel as fast as you can watch it; running it 24 hours a day.’ ” Source: NewsMax.com Wires, 2/18/05
PRO-ACTIVE PRC ESTABLISHES BEACHHEADS IN LATIN AMERICA IGNORED BY A PASSIVE USA
“China is waging an aggressive campaign of seduction in the Caribbean, wooing countries away from relationships with rival Taiwan, opening markets for its expanding economy, promising to send tourists, and shipping police to Haiti in the first communist deployment in the Western Hemisphere.
“And the United States, China’s Cold War enemy, is benignly watching the Asian economic superpower move into its backyard.”
BEIJING’S ECONOMIC CLOUT KO’S TAIWAN’S DIPLOMATIC IMPACT
“For decades China and Taiwan used dollar diplomacy to win over small Caribbean nations where small projects building roads, bridges, wells and fisheries go a long way. But Beijing’s growing economic clout is tipping the scales in the region.
“Caribbean trade with China reached $2 billion last year, a 42.5 percent increase from 2003, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported.”
BUSH STATE DEPARTMENT CHEERS GROWING CHICOM INFLUENCE
“The United States has applauded China’s economic offensive, seeing it as a herald of political reform.
” ‘China’s intensified interest in the Western Hemisphere does not imply a lack of focus by the United States,’ Roger Noriega, the U.S. assistant secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs, said in a recent letter to the editor of New Jersey’s Newark Star Ledger. ‘The United States has long stood for expansion of global trade and consolidating democracy.’ “
DOMINICA AND GRENADA SWITCH FROM ROC TO PRC
“This year, two Caribbean countries – Dominica and Grenada – switched allegiance to China, abandoning Taiwan, which China calls ‘a renegade province.’ … Two weeks before Dominica changed sides, Taiwan gave it $9 million. China promised Dominica $112 million over the next six years.“
GUYANA AND BAHAMAS APPLAUD RED CHINA’S POWERFUL PRESENCE
” ‘China is not only increasing its influence in the Caribbean, the region is opening up to China, realizing that Taiwan’s money diplomacy is not working anymore,’ said Guyana’s Foreign Minister Clement Rohee. The Bahamas was one of the first in the region to abandon Taiwan, in 1997. The move came as Hutchison Whampoa, a Beijing-allied Hong Kong company, opened a $114 million container port in Freeport and bought three hotel resorts in Nassau.
“Since then, China has earmarked more than $1 billion for projects ranging from maritime transport to a sports complex. …”
JAMAICA, ANTIGUA, BARBADOS, ST. LUCIA, TRINIDAD ALSO TARGETED
“Early this month, Chinese Vice President Zeng Qinghong visited Jamaica for a three-day China-Caribbean economic and trade forum attended by hundreds of Chinese and Caribbean government officials and business executives. …
By the end of the forum, China added Antigua, the Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, and St. Lucia to its approved travel destinations, promising the region a bigger piece of the fast-growing Chinese tourist market. …
“Qinghong this month led a delegation of 120 to Trinidad and visited its Pitch Lake, which produces asphalt used to pave many Chinese highways and the runways at Beijing International Airport.
“China, already the leading importer of Trinidadian asphalt, is a good prospect for even more business as Beijing develops infrastructure for the 2008 Olympic Games and World Expo 2010, a Chinese government statement said.”
HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY BE NEXT
“In the Caribbean, only five countries still maintain relations with Taiwan – the Dominican Republic, Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
“But China has commercial missions in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti, where in October China dispatched 95 police officers to join a U.N. peacekeeping force. It is Beijing’s first contribution to a U.N. mission in the Western Hemisphere.” Source: From San Juan, Puerto Rico, NewsMax.com Wires, 2/20/05
Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of February 28, 2005
CONDI OMITS RED CHINA FROM HER LIST OF TYRANNIES
“Condoleezza Rice lists ‘outposts of tyranny,’ but Communist China is missing: According to Secretary of State-designate Condoleezza Rice, there are six ‘outposts of tyranny’ (Washington Times): Stalinist North Korea, Iran, Burma, Belarus, Cuba and Zimbabwe. As for Communist China, Rice preferred ‘building a candid, cooperative and constructive relationship with China that embraces our common threats but still recognizes our considerable differences about values’ (Cybercast News). Never mind that the Communists have several economic and/or military ties to all six ‘outposts,’ and that their treatment of their own people qualifies for nothing but tyranny.” Source: China_e_lobby News of the Day, 1/19/05
WHY DOES BUSH ADMINISTRATION “LOWBALL” THE CHICOM MILITARY THREAT?
“China has deployed a brigade of up to eight new road-mobile DF-31 long-range missiles. That’s the latest assessment from the authoritative International Institute for Strategic Studies publication, ‘The Military Balance.’
“China also has 24 DF-5A long-range strategic missiles and 112 intermediate-range DF-4, DF-3A and DF-21 missiles. The assessment that eight DF-31s are operational goes beyond the Pentagon’s latest report on Chinese military power made public in May. The Pentagon report stated that the DF-31 is still in development with deployment expected ‘later this decade.’
“The Pentagon stated that China also is working on two longer-range versions of the DF-31, one that is a solid-fuel ground-based mobile missile and a solid-fuel submarine-launched version.
“China also is building up its strategic nuclear forces. It is expected to add 10 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) to its arsenal this year and 30 more ICBMs by 2010, the Pentagon report said.” Source: Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough, Inside the Ring, The Washington Times, 1/21/05, p. A5
TRADE DEFICITS FUND BEIJING MILITARY SPENDING FOUR TIMES OVER
“Some confusion on the U.S. trade deficit with Communist China: John E. Tamny, an infrequent National Review Online columnist, takes on those of us who are worried about the massive trade deficit with Communist China (which may pass $150 billion for 2004 once all the data is in). Tamny’s economic arguments aside, he doesn’t even deign to discuss the fact that said trade deficit (the largest bilateral imbalance on the planet) is enough to fund the Communists’ official defense budget more than four times over – and their real defense budget more than twice.” Source: D.J. McGuire, china_e_lobby@yahoo.com, News of the Day, 1/10/05
RED CHINESE MILITARY THREAT IS NOW, NOT LATER
“China is modernizing its military forces faster than anyone expected, escalating the potential danger to the island of Taiwan, to American forces and bases in Asia, and to the overall balance of power in the region.
” ‘China adheres to the military strategy of active defense and works to speed up the revolution of military affairs (RMA) with Chinese characteristics,’ says the white paper Beijing issued in December. It points to ‘leapfrog development’ in high-tech weapons for its missile units, navy, and air force.
“Where many American and Asian analysts said before that China would be able to mount a credible threat between 2010 and 2015, now they are saying it will come earlier, perhaps by 2006 and certainly by 2012. …”
CHICOM ECONOMY, FUELED BY U.S. AID AND TRADE, IS THE FOUNDATION FOR BEIJING’S WORLD CLASS MILITARY
“Behind this military progress has been the rapid growth of the Chinese economy that pays for the military power. China’s defense budget is estimated to have ballooned to $80 billion, the world’s third largest after the United States and Russia, and almost double that of Japan, which has Asia’s second largest defense budget.
“The Chinese, who had insisted on self-sufficiency, have bought weapons and technology from abroad, notably from Russia. China could afford those purchases because Beijing’s foreign exchange reserves, the world’s largest, rose to $610 billion by the end of 2004, more than 10 times their holdings of $53 billion 10 years ago. …
“China’s missile force, called the Second Artillery, had been deploying 50 to 75 short-range missiles a year; that has increased to more than 100 and in 2006 Second Artillery will have 800 aimed at Taiwan. Accuracy has been doubled so that most missiles would hit within 60 to 90 feet of their targets.
“Moreover, the missiles have been made mobile to make them less of a target. In a training drill, a brigade moved 360 miles and was ready to fire in two days.
“Land-based and air-launched cruise missiles, which are flying torpedoes with stubby wings and advanced navigational devices, have been added to the Chinese inventory to add to their ability to stand off and fire at targets on Taiwan or at U.S. warships at sea.
“In the Chinese navy, long the stepchild of the People’s Liberation Army, submarines are leading the way. In the event of hostilities, they would be tasked with gaining control of the Taiwan Strait between the island and the mainland, and fending off the U.S. Navy.
“China has bought eight Kilo diesel-electric submarines from Russia and is planning to buy four more. Beijing is also building its own Song class of diesel-electric boats. Although they lack the range of nuclear-powered submarines, they are quieter and more effective close to shore. For long-range operations, China is building several nuclear-powered attack submarines.
“China, which has become the world’s third largest shipbuilder, has produced about 100 amphibious ships, and four tank landing ships are under construction.” Source: Richard Halloran, Honolulu Advertiser, 2/6/05
CHICOMS BUILD SEA-LAUNCH ICBM SUBMARINES
“China’s military has launched the first of a new class of ballistic missile submarines in what defense officials view as a major step forward in Beijing’s strategic weapons program.
“The new 094-class submarine was launched in late July and when fully operational in the next year or two will be the first submarine to carry the under-water-launched version of China’s new DF-31 missile, according to defense officials. …
“A second intelligence official said building submarines is a top priority of the Chinese, and the Type 094 will be ‘China’s first truly intercontinental strategic nuclear delivery system.’ …”
RUSSIAN TECHNOLOGY MADE IT POSSIBLE
“The submarine is believed to be based largely on Russian nuclear submarine technology, the officials said. A CIA report made public last week stated that Russia was a major supplier of technology to China’s naval nuclear propulsion programs.”
BEIJING IS 5 YEARS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
“The launching of the new missile submarine appears ahead of schedule. A Pentagon report on Chinese military power made public in May stated that the new Chinese missile submarine would not be deployed until around 2010. …
“Mobile, solid-fuel missiles and a new ballistic missile submarine will improve the force’s ability to survive a first strike,’ the report said, ‘while more launchers, on-board penetration aids, and possibly multiple warheads will improve its ability to penetrate missile defenses.’ …
“Richard Fisher, vice president of the Washington-based International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the launch of the new missile submarine is ‘an astounding development.’
” ‘The 094 has followed 093 development far more rapidly than the assessments in the annual Pentagon reports on the PLA,’ Mr. Fisher said, referring to … China’s People’s Liberation Army.
“China also recently launched a new attack submarine known as the Type 093. Additionally, U.S. intelligence agencies were surprised by China’s disclosure in July of a third new type of submarine known as the Yuan-class, a diesel-electric attack submarine.“
CAN RED CHINA BLOCK U.S. DEFENSE OF TAIWAN?
” ‘In the very near future, China will have a secure, second strike nuclear attack capability that it will use to bolster its nuclear strategy of seeking to deter the United States from aiding Taiwan after a PLA attack,’ Mr. Fisher said. …
“The new submarine will make it more difficult for the U.S. military to take part in a defense of Taiwan because of the threat of nuclear retaliation, he said.“
U.S. TERRITORY IS AT RISK
“The Pentagon has deployed a new missile defense system, but a spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency has said the current interceptor system is designed to stop a long-range North Korean missile, but not an attack from Chinese or Russian missiles.
“A 1999 report by the House Select Committee on U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People’s Republic of China stated that the new missile submarine will likely benefit from stolen U.S. nuclear warhead designs. …
“The range of the JL-2 is estimated to be about 7,500 miles, enough ‘to strike targets throughout the United States,’ the report said.
” ‘Instead of venturing into the open ocean to attack the United States, the Type 094-class submarines could remain near [Chinese] waters, protected by the [People’s Liberation Army,] Navy and Air Force,’ the report said.” Source: Bill Gertz, The Washington Times, 12/3/04, pp. 1, A14
MOSCOW HELPS BUILD BEIJING’S MILITARY
“Russia plans to sell a host of new fighters and transport planes to China in 2005, arms export officials said Friday, and foreign sales of Russian weaponry could exceed $5 billion next year.
“Yury Krylov, who heads the air force division of the state agency Rosoboronexport, said that his agency and the Chinese air force expect to sign several new contracts for Su-30MK2 jet fighters, according to Interfax. Pre-contract work on supplying Il-76 Candid military transports and Il-78 Midas aerial tankers were almost finished as well, he said. …
“The Sukhoi Su-27 – a similar twin-engine design to the Su-30 – has been in service since 1985, and has the NATO code name ‘Flanker.’ Its speed and maneuverability made it one of the key planes in the former Soviet Air Force, and it resembles the U.S. F-15 Eagle fighter with two rear stabilizers and twin engines.
“Rosoboronexport director general Sergei Chemezov … said naval contracts are expected to grow, along with upgrading planes and helicopters, missile and artillery armaments, and communication systems and other technologies.” Source: Combined AP, Bloomberg Reports, Moscow Times, 12/28/04, p. 5
RUSSIA AND CHINA HOLD JOINT MILITARY EXERCISES
“Once-bitter rivals Russia and China will hold a large joint military exercise on Chinese territory next year [in 2005] involving submarines and possibly strategic bombers, Russia’s defense minister said yesterday, as the two nations move to bolster burgeoning military ties.
“Many observers saw the announcement as Russia’s response to a spat with the United States and other Western nations over the disputed election in Ukraine, Russia’s neighbor, where Kremlin-backed candidate Victor Yanukovych trailed pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko in near-final results.
” ‘For the first time in history, we have agreed to hold quite a large military exercise together with China on Chinese territory in the second half of the year,’ Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said at a cabinet session chaired by President Vladimir V. Putin, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency.
” ‘The Russian side will not bring big numbers of servicemen, but mostly state-of-the-art weapons – navy, air, long-range aviation, submarines – to practice interaction with China in different forms of military maneuvers.’ “
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP LINKS MOSCOW AND BEIJING
“After decades of rivalry, Moscow and Beijing have developed what they call a strategic partnership since the Soviet Union’s collapse. China has become the No. 1 customer for Russia’s struggling defense industry, buying billions of dollars worth of fighters, missiles, submarines and destroyers. …
“Putin and other Russian officials allege the United States improperly influenced Ukraine’s elections by funding democracy-building organizations. A Nov. 21 ballot in which Yanukovych was declared the winner was annulled after allegations of widespread fraud and amid huge public protests.” Source: From Moscow, Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press, Philadelphia Inquirer, 12/28/04
ISRAEL SURREPTITIOUSLY AIDS CHICOM MILITARY TO THE DETRIMENT OF THE U.S.
“Israel’s persistent clandestine military dealings with China have created waves with the U.S., reports International News Services. Israel has reportedly concealed from Washington an upgrade of a major weapons system it sold to China more than a decade ago. By assisting in upgrading China’s weapons system, Israel violated its commitment not to transfer U.S. technology to China without Washington’s permission. Israel is China’s second-largest arms supplier, after Russia. Although diplomatic relations between Israel and China were established only in 1992, military ties go back to the early 1980s. Until formal diplomatic ties were established in the early 1990s, the nation’s military relationship was covert. Israel sold approximately US$4 billion worth of arms to China during the covert relationship.
“During the 1990s, while much of the West penalized Beijing following the Tiananmen Square Massacre, the Sino-Israel military relationship grew rapidly. After Israel was pressured by the U.S. to scrap a $250 million deal to sell China the Phalcon, an airborne radar system, the military relationship soured. Washington claimed that providing Beijing access to the technology would upset the military balance between China and Taiwan and threaten U.S. interests in the region. When the U.S. Congress threatened to cut the $2.8 billion it gives Israel annually if the deal went ahead, Israel buckled and scrapped it.
“For years, the U.S. government has expressed concerns over Israel illegally transferring technology to China. During the Gulf War, the U.S. gave Israel Patriot Missiles as protection against Iraqi Scud missiles. In 1992, a U.S. intelligence report revealed that soon after the end of the Gulf War, Israel had sold Patriot anti-missile data to China. Washington has also alleged on several occasions that Israel violated agreements by exporting to China restricted U.S. technology it buys with yearly U.S. subsidies. This was the case with the largely U.S.-funded Lavi fighter-plane program, the technology of which Israel passed to Beijing. China’s F-10 fighter jet is believed to be almost identical to the Lavi.
“In 2002, a deal for Israeli communication satellites was signed with the United States. Early this year, an Israeli delegation went to China for talks on rebuilding military ties. Beijing’s relationship with Israel has enabled it to acquire ‘dual-use technology’ that the U.S. and Europe have been reluctant to provide. [December 21]” Source: Al Santoli, American Foreign Policy Council’s China Reform Monitor, 1/12/05
Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of June 15, 2004
RED CHINA IS HUNGRY FOR OIL
“The other main driver in petroleum-related price rises of late is the emergence on world oil markets of growing demand from China. Most analysts believe the only way Beijing can maintain the sorts of economic growth and rising living standards essential to the Communist Party’s continued hold on power is for vastly greater imports of energy from the international oil patch. In the absence of massive new finds of oil, technological or other impetuses for reduced U.S. and Western demand, the Chinese competition will not only further increase the cost of a barrel of oil. It may also contribute to the sort of mentality that political scientists call a ‘zero-sum’ game – where one side can only benefit at the other’s expense, a mindset that, when it comes to vital and scarce natural resources, frequently leads to conflict and war.” Source: Frank Gaffney Jr., Center for Security Policy president, The Washington Times, 6/2/04, p. A15
CHINESE REDS ASSERT SOVEREIGNTY OVER JAPANESE ISLANDS –– AND THE OIL-RICH WATERS AROUND THEM
“March 27: Chinese activists symbolically claimed Beijing’s sovereignty over small, uninhabited islands – known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China – located between southern Japan and Taiwan in the East China Sea, reports the Washington Post. Japanese security forces arrested the handful of Chinese activists on the islands, which drew both official and unofficial hostility. A Chinese Foreign Ministry official announced, ‘The arrests were an illegal action that breaks international law … a serious provocation against Chinese sovereignty and territory and Chinese citizens’ human rights.’ Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi stated, ‘The islands are Japanese territory.’ The islands came under Japanese control in 1895, following the Sino-Japanese War. Japan retained administration of the islands in 1972, after signing an agreement with the U.S. Both China and Taiwan claim the islands.”
CONTROL OF ISLANDS WOULD BE KEY IF BEIJING LAUNCHES MILITARY ASSAULT ON TAIWAN
“May 14: The Japanese Defense Agency plans to send 7,200 ground troops to the country’s southernmost islands in the event of a future confrontation with China, reports the Kyodo News agency. Tokyo assumes that in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, China would also invade islands in the Okinawa prefecture to block counter-attacks by the United States and Japan.” Source: Al Santoli, China Reform Monitor, 6/2/04
BUSH REJECTS TAIWAN AS IRAQI ALLY TO APPEASE CHICOMS
“Even though Spain and Honduras pulled their troops out of Iraq (plus the U.N.), the one country that is willing to send 5,000 troops isn’t being asked to help. Despite Taiwan’s willingness to reduce the manpower shortage in Iraq, the U.S. would rather not upset the Red Chinese (who bluster that as a ‘renegade’ province, Taiwan’s elected government does not have the ‘right’ to dispatch troops abroad). With so many U.S. troops dying over there, and with our so-called allies on the run, the refusal of the U.S. to accept Taiwanese peacekeeping troops is bad on both substance and symbolism.” Source: The American Sentinel (Lee Bellinger, editor), June 2004, p. 9
CHICOMS SEEK THEATER AIR SUPERIORITY vs. U.S.
“May 26: The Chinese naval air corps will receive 24 advanced Su-30MK2 fighters from Russia during the coming months, reports Jane’s Defense Weekly. The planes have enhanced anti-ship munitions, including the KH-31 supersonic anti-ship missiles. According to an unreleased U.S. Air Force report, the most advanced U.S. fighter aircraft, the F-15 Eagle, is inferior to the Su-30, reports Charles Smith in NewsMax.com. In a recent air exercise between U.S. and Indian air units, the Su-30MKs often won long-range engagements against the F-15, using AA-10 air-to-air missiles.” Source: Al Santoli, China Reform Monitor, 6/2/04
CHICOM MILITARY THREAT GROWS INCREASINGLY OMINOUS
“China expanded its aggressive military buildup last year with more sophisticated missiles, satellite-disrupting lasers and underground facilities, all aimed at winning a possible conflict with Taiwan and exerting power, according to a Pentagon report.
“Beijing has more than 500 short-range ballistic missiles, some with improved guidance systems, opposite Taiwan and its defense spending of $50 billion to $70 billion is third behind the United States and Russia, the report released yesterday says.
“The report, an annual assessment of China’s capabilities submitted to Congress, reflects the Pentagon’s profound concern over Beijing’s far-reaching military transformation and the possibility China may one day become America’s main adversary.“
DEFENSE AND STATE DISAGREE
“By contrast, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell has hailed U.S.-China ties as the best ever and is among a group of U.S. officials and specialists who say the war on terrorism has given Beijing and Washington common ground for cooperation.”
MILITARY VICTORY – NOT PEACEFUL RECONCILIATION – IS BEIJING’S PLAN FOR TAIWAN
“China’s ‘determined focus on preparing for conflict in the Taiwan Strait raises serious doubts over Beijing’s declared policy of seeking peaceful reunification [with Taipei] under the “one country, two systems” model,’ said a senior Defense Department official who briefed reporters on the new study.
“By adding 75 missiles annually to its deployments opposite Taiwan, China is pursuing ‘coercive steps’ and ‘creating an inherently less stable situation,’ the official said.
“Influenced by lessons learned from the U.S.-led Iraq war, the Chinese army is rethinking assumptions about the value of long-range precision strikes, independent of ground forces, in any Taiwan conflict, the report says.”
CHINESE COMMIES LEARN FROM U.S.-IRAQ EXPERIENCE
“Other ‘lessons’ affecting army thinking include the integration of psychological operations, and air and rapid ground operations designed to target enemy leadership, its ability to communicate and its will to fight, the report says.
“It also says the war reinforced China’s decision to speed acquisition of improved information technology and weapons mobility. …
“China is pursuing a ‘comprehensive, well-planned, well-executed transformation’ of all sectors – including weapons, tactics, doctrine and training – and could be a world-class military force in 10 to 15 years, the official said.
“This is coupled with China’s growing economic power, increasingly confident role in world affairs and expanded involvement with other Asian militaries, the report notes.”
AS U.S. ECONOMIC POWER DECLINES, PRC PLANS A GREAT LEAP FORWARD
“Since the1991 Persian Gulf war, China has expanded civil and military underground facilities to protect command centers and missile facilities, the report says. Beijing is advancing its military space capabilities ‘across the board’ with two new remote-sensing satellites, advanced imagery, and electronic intelligence reconnaissance satellites, it says.”
SPACE CONTROL IS THE “HIGH GROUND” OBJECTIVE
“China continues to enhance its satellite tracking and identification network and probably can use low-energy lasers to ‘blind’ sensors of low-Earth-orbiting satellites. Chinese arms purchases were up 7 percent in 2003 with purchases from Russia of 24 Su-30 fighter aircraft for $1 billion and SA-20 surface-to-air missile systems for $500 million.” Source: Reuters news agency, The Washington Times, 5/29/04, p. A2
Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of May 31, 2004
BUSH WILL SEND MORE DUAL-USE HIGH TECH TO RED CHINA’S PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY
On April 28, “Following a meeting in Washington with Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi, U.S. Commerce Secretary Donald Evans promised to ease curbs on exports of computers and other technologies that could be used in Chinese weapons systems, reports Charles Smith in NewsMax.com. Smith warns that the curbs could jeopardize U.S. and East Asian security because, as stated in a February 2004 U.S. General Accounting Office [GAO] report, China does not adhere to treaties it has signed on ‘dual use’ equipment. According to the GAO, Beijing continues to violate provisions, such as permitting inspections to verify that exported equipment is not being used for military purposes.” Source: Al Santoli, China Reform Monitor, 5/13/04
BUSH I HAILS RED CHINA’S RISING POWER
“Former US President [George] Bush on Saturday said China’s peaceful rise is ‘very reassuring and very, very important to the Asian horizon and Asia’s landscape.’
“Bush made the remarks in his 20-minute speech on China’s peaceful rise, the international war on terror and the importance of free trade delivered at a luncheon session hosted by the ongoing 2004 annual conference of the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA).
“Bush recalled his days in China as a US envoy, when the country was both poor and isolated. ‘Thirty years later, the change could not be more dramatic,’ said Bush, who visited China many times in the past decades. The country has become wealthier, more confident, and full of color, energy and vitality, he said.”
GHWB HAILS PRC’S “POLITICAL FREEDOM”
“He attributed the change mainly to the expanding economic, social and political freedom the Chinese government had brought to its people since the late 1970s, when [the] late leader Deng Xiaoping initiated the reform and opening-up drive.” Source: From Boao, Hainan (Xinhuanet), www.chinaview.cn, 4/24/04
Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of March 31, 2004
CHICOM MILITARY BUILDUP IS INTENDED TO INTIMIDATE U.S. AS WELL AS TAIWAN
“[T]hese are the outward signs of China’s military modernization program, a campaign to improve what experts count as the world’s largest fighting force, with more than 2 million members. The effort, widely hailed by Chinese leaders, has been underway for years. But it has accelerated markedly since the late 1990s, when then-President Jiang Zemin concluded that China needed a more potent and up-to-date military if it was to compete seriously in the world arena and back up its policy on reuniting Taiwan with the mainland.”
SEAPOWER IS TOP PRIORITY
“For the past 18 months, foreign military experts have observed, the military has concentrated particularly on strengthening its sea power. The main reason, they say, is to provide the government in Beijing with a credible military option if Taiwan crosses Beijing’s red line – a formal declaration of independence – and brings the long-simmering standoff to a boil. …
“Construction has begun on about 70 military ships over the last 12 months, including a number of landing craft, and China is considering acquisition of another two Soviet-designed Sovremenny-class destroyers to complement the three it already owns, he added. More Kilo-class submarines are the subject of negotiations or already purchased, adding to the four bought several years ago.
“Although China has an estimated 500 missiles capable of hitting Taiwan, 100 miles off the mainland, foreign officials and military experts say they do not believe the Chinese military has the training to mount an invasion. The newly built or newly purchased ships and equipment have yet to be fitted and manned, a process that takes several years. The Pentagon estimates that China now has the ability to sealift only about one division, or 10,000 men.
“But some of these observers have concluded that the rapid shipbuilding program, combined with other acquisitions and training, could provide China’s leaders with a limited military option – probably short of a full invasion – within several years. That would greatly strengthen Beijing’s hand when, in the eyes of Chinese leaders, the most dangerous period of the Taiwan crisis is likely to arise. …
“The real test would come in 2006 or later, [an anonymous Beijing-based scholar] predicted. That is when China’s leaders fear a second Taiwan referendum, this one more explicitly aimed at a formal declaration of independence.
“Foreign military experts in contact with Chinese officers have concluded that the goal of the Taiwan-oriented military modernization is to provide the leadership with the ability to inflict some kind of attack should the need arise, while at the same time making any U.S. intervention to protect the self-governing island at least a little dangerous, forcing Washington to think twice.”
BEIJING’S NEED FOR OIL DRIVES EFFORT TO CONTROL SEA LANES
“Against this background, China’s leadership has repeatedly urged the military to improve its electronic and information technology abilities. Both were found badly lacking when U.S. naval forces moved into the region as a protective gesture after China test-fired missiles near Taiwan in the lead-up to Chen’s election in 2000. …
“Although the most immediate, the Taiwan standoff is far from being China’s only military consideration. With ever-growing needs for imported oil, China has sea lanes from the Middle East to protect. And with its increasing role as an Asian power, it sees a need to project its strength along its borders and farther afield, with military as well as economic might.
“Announced budget allocations for China’s military have risen by double digits almost every year for more than a decade. Finance Minister Jin Renquing announced last week that the 2004 budget will be about $25 billion, up 11.6 percent from last year.
“Ding Jiye, finance head of the People’s Liberation Army General Logistics Department, pointed out to the New China News Agency that the military’s spending still amounted to only 1.7 percent of China’s gross domestic product, compared with what he said was an average of 3 percent worldwide. The Pentagon estimates, however, that if unannounced programs are taken into account, China’s military spending is several times the announced sum.”
HIGH TECH ASYMMETRIC WARFARE IS A TOP PRC CONCERN
“Notoriously secretive, the Chinese military does not reveal specifics of its spending or its equipment acquisitions. But statements from the leadership, such as Jiang’s last week, have led foreign experts to conclude that improving training in the use of high-tech equipment is a pressing goal.” Source: From Shanghai, Edward Cody, The Washington Post, 3/20/04, pp. A12, 18
PRO-COMMUNIST 5TH COLUMN OF 2.8 MILLION CHINESE-AMERICANS INHABITS U.S.
“A majority of respondents supported a Taiwan unified with China, expressed great concern over America’s slowing economy, and showed strong support for the communist mainland government.
“The telephone poll organized by New California Media is the first nationwide multilingual survey to target Americans of ethnic Chinese origin, estimated at 2.8 million in the 2000 census. The poll questioned 603 respondents in 37 states between March 9 and 15. The poll was conducted by Bendixen & Associates and has a margin of error of 4 percent.”
AMERICANS FROM CHINA FAVOR COMMUNISM AND KERRY
“Over a third of respondents were eligible to vote in the presidential elections in November. About 60 percent of registered voters said they favored presumptive Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, compared to 15 percent who would vote for Mr. Bush.
“On the Taiwanese election, fewer than a fifth of the Taiwanese-Americans supported Mr. Chen, while more than half supported the challenger, Lien Chan – a clear break from the even race that polls in Taiwan indicated. Taiwan’s laws forbid local opinion polls in the 10 days before an election.
“James Dorn, a China specialist at the Cato Institute, attributed this support for Mr. Lien to a greater interest in business over politics. ‘Overseas Taiwanese businessmen probably perceive Chen as a threat to future stability because of his advocacy of independence,’ he said.”
MOST WOULD SUPPORT CHICOM MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TAIWAN
“On the status of Taiwan, more than three-quarters said they favored unification, and a slight majority said that China had the right to take military action if the island declared independence. A majority said the United States should not intervene militarily if Taiwan were attacked.
“The predominantly pro-China sentiments of the respondents can be attributed to their demographics: an overwhelming majority – 92 percent – identified themselves as Chinese or Chinese-Americans, and the remaining were of Taiwanese origin. The Census Bureau says only 5 percent of Chinese Americans are Taiwanese in origin.
“The Census Bureau, in a report this week, estimated that the Asian American population would grow 213 percent to 33 million by 2050, raising its share of the U.S. population from 3.8 percent in 2000 to 8 percent.
“The poll also shows that the Chinese government enjoys considerable approval among the Chinese in America. Sergio Bendixen, whose Miami-based company conducted the poll, said that such approval of communist governments was unusual.“
WHY ARE SO MANY CHINESE-AMERICANS PRO-COMMUNIST?
” ‘Only 1 to 2 percent of Cubans gave Fidel Castro a positive rating,’ he said, while 62 percent of Chinese Americans gave Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao a positive rating.” Source: Benjamin Hu, The Washington Times, 3/20/04, p. A9
Excerpted from Howard Phillips Issues & Strategy Bulletin of December 15, 2003
RED CHINA CHALLENGES U.S. FOR CONTROL OF SPACE
“While speaking at a geo-spatial intelligence conference, Lieutenant General Edward Anderson, deputy commander of U.S. Northern Command stated, ‘In my view it will not be long before space becomes a battleground,’ reported the Sydney Morning Herald. ‘Our military forces … depend very, very heavily on space capabilities, and so that is a statement of the obvious to our potential threat, whoever that may be,’ Anderson said. ‘They [China] can see that one of the ways that they can certainly diminish our capabilities will be to attack the space systems,’ said Anderson, who was formerly with U.S. Space Command.”
WITHIN 20 YEARS CONTROL OF SPACE WILL BE DECISIVE
“Rich Haver, former special assistant for intelligence to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, said he expects battles in space within the next two decades. ‘I believe space is the place we will fight in the next 20 years,’ said Haver. Responding to a question regarding the implications of China sending a man into space, Haver commented: ‘I think the Chinese are telling us they’re there, and I think if we ever wind up in a confrontation again with any one of the major powers who has a space capability, we will find space is a battleground.’ ” Source: Al Santoli, China Reform Monitor, 10/30/03
THE CHINESE SPACE THREAT IS REAL AND MUST BE CONFRONTED URGENTLY
“As China becomes only the third country, after the Soviet Union and the U.S., to put a human in space, it is important to consider the military and strategic implications of such an achievement. And it is a very significant achievement by any measure. …
“Then there is talk of a Chinese space station (Shenzhou has a docking port), a Chinese man on the moon, and eventually a moon base. This may all sound like a pipe dream, but don’t bet on it. The leadership in Beijing has shown a steely determination to make their country into an economic and military powerhouse, and space power is an important part of the plan.”
“FREE TRADE” BUILDS BEIJING’S WAR MACHINE
“As China uses its cheap labor to become the world’s manufacturing center, it generates huge amounts of foreign exchange that enable it to finance both military modernization and space adventures. Chinese officials claim the Shenzhou program is ‘purely for peaceful purposes,’ but the orbital module already is being used to gather electronic intelligence (ELINT). …
“The orbital modules of Shenzhou 3 and 4 had an ELINT capability that included three antennas aimed at Earth to determine the source of ultra-high frequency emissions, plus other antennas designed to detect and locate radar transmissions. The Soviets used similar transmissions to monitor movements of U.S. Navy ships.”
RED SURVEILLANCE UNDERCUTS U.S. MILITARY SUPERIORITY
“It may be true that China’s astronauts will not engage in military activities, at least initially, but the orbital module they leave behind is loaded with equipment that will autonomously conduct surveillance from space. Data are downloaded electronically when the spacecraft is over China. The Shenzhou 3 and 4 orbital modules were China’s first ELINT satellites. They have enabled Beijing to track U.S. naval movements since March 2002.
“Shenzhou 4 must have given Beijing a front row seat during the fighting in Iraq. Shenzhou 5, going up today, has another military payload, a space-based reconnaissance capability consisting of two cameras that provide images with a ground resolution estimated at five feet. This is militarily useful imagery that can be updated on demand.
“Beijing’s ability to put satellites with electronic, signals and photo reconnaissance capabilities in orbit on a continuing basis gives it a global reach in intelligence-gathering that puts U.S. forces, especially carrier task forces in the Pacific, at grater risk. In the longer term, China’s ambitious space program, its research in lasers and anti-satellites, and its new ballistic and cruise missiles, could lead to a new global strategic balance.
“Some are calling this the ‘Chinese century.’ That remains to be seen, but this country must have a space program, including military space, that is second to none.” Source: James Hackett, The Washington Times, 10/14/03, p. A16
RED CHINA SEEKS MILITARY CONTROL OF SPACE
“Chinese military planners have focused on ‘information warfare’ and ‘space supremacy’ as the key components of their country’s battlefield ‘Supremacy Theory,’ enunciated in an October 28, 2003 People’s Liberation Army Daily article, ‘Space is the Commanding Point for the Information Battlefield.’ The broad philosophy driving the development of China’s space technology, observes Asia Times Online, is to destroy or capture satellites and other space-based sensors, which will make it difficult for opponents to operate their precision-weapons capability. In addition, the Chinese are developing micro- and nano-satellites that can effectively intercept satellites utilized by other countries.” Source: Al Santoli, China Reform Monitor, 11/19/03
CHINESE NANOWARFARE COULD DESTROY OUR ABILITY TO DETER OR RETALIATE AGAINST A NUCLEAR ATTACK
“The word ‘nano’ means ‘one billionth.’ Nanotechnology is a field of many fields, some of them civilian, dealing with such small systems. What is of interest to us is tiny systems (they are called ‘assemblers’) of molecular nanotechnology. Such assemblers can penetrate molecules and transform or destroy them.
“The world peace has been based on Mutual Assured Destruction. That is, every nuclear power such as the United States, Russia, or China has had means of nuclear retaliation, which an enemy nuclear attack cannot destroy. Thus, nuclear weapons can destroy New York, Moscow, or Beijing, but they cannot destroy submarines deep underwater, carrying nuclear missiles, underground nuclear installations, or bombers on duty high in the air carrying nuclear bombs. Nano assemblers are expected to be able to find these means of retaliation and destroy them by penetrating in between their atoms. Thus an attacked country can be destroyed safely by nuclear weapons because it has no means of nuclear retaliation to retaliate after the enemy nuclear attack and destroy the attacker by way of Mutual Assured Destruction. …
“Let me recall the description a nanotechnologist has e-mailed to me. A molecular assembler I spoke about is a device capable of breaking and creating the chemical bonds between atoms and molecules. Since a molecular assembler is by definition able to self-replace, the first could build a duplicate copy of itself. Those two then become four, become eight, and so on. This compounding capital base could lead to a massive and decisive force within days. As Eric Drexler described it in his book – which he published in 1986! – ‘a state that makes the assembler breakthrough could rapidly create a decisive military force – if not literally overnight, then at least with unprecedented speed.’
“Such a device is capable of rapidly manufacturing and deploying billions of microscopic/macroscopic machines at relatively little cost. These machines could comb the oceans for enemy submarines and quickly disable the nuclear arsenals they carry. Similar acts of sabotage could be carried out simultaneously against land-based nuclear facilities and conventional military forces in a matter of hours, if not minutes.
“The race to build a molecular assembler, if won by China, will result in its worldwide nanotechnic dictatorship. We are certainly at a crucial juncture in history, not unlike 1938 and its nuclear scientists who foretold the atom bomb. This time, we cannot afford to be caught sleeping.” Source: Lev Navrozov, NewsMax.com, 9/26/03
U.S. DEFENSE FACTORY CONTROLLED BY RED CHINA
“Citing national-security concerns, two Democratic lawmakers are engaged in a last-ditch effort to halt plans for the transfer of an Indiana factory that produces critical technology used in the guidance systems of U.S. ‘smart bombs’ to the People’s Republic of China.
“The Department of Defense denies any impropriety, but some observers are asking: Is it a case of politics as usual, or a cover-up? The Magnequench factory (originally known as UGIMAG) was sold in August 2000 to a consortium that included Chinese interests. In 2001, it was announced the plant would be shut down.
“The factory is responsible for producing 80 percent of the rare-earth permanent magnets used in the guidance systems of U.S. ‘smart bombs,’ according to lawmakers.
“On Aug. 1, the office of Rep. Pete Visclosky, D-Ind., issued a statement indicating he and Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., were mounting a ‘last-ditch’ effort to halt the factory move to China. Citing the loss of 225 northwest Indiana jobs, Visclosky also expressed concern over the ‘transfer of sensitive defense technology to the People’s Republic of China.’ …”
BUSH ADMINISTRATION STONEWALLS THE TECH TRANSFER
“The two lawmakers reportedly received no response from letters sent to President Bush on March 6 and May 1. Two letters sent to Treasury Secretary John Snow (on May 20 and June 5) received a response turning down a request from the congressman for a meeting. Several phone calls also have received no response. …
“Magnequench, a high-tech company created in 1986 by General Motors, pioneered the development and production of sintered neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) – magnets used in the guidance system of ‘smart bombs.’ Beijing San Huan New Materials High-Tech Inc. is a holding of the Chinese Academy of Science Business Group and was established in 1985. China National Non-Ferrous Metals – previously described by the Wall Street Journal as a ‘high-flying state company’ – operates under the control of the State Council, one of the major organs of the Chinese government.
“The 1995 sale required approval from the Committee on Foreign Investments in the U.S., or CFIUS. The CFIUS is an inter-agency committee chaired by the secretary of treasury, tasked with conducting reviews of foreign acquisitions that might threaten national security.
” ‘Concerns raised by American officials about what they considered a clear case of the PRC attempting to obtain control of vital U.S. weapons technology were shot down, and CFIUS permitted the buyout,’ reported Insight magazine and WND. …”
BEIJING’S TOP COMMIES ARE INVOLVED
“Archibald Cox Jr., founder of the Sextant Group, was appointed president and chief executive officer. And Shannon Song, the former finance director of state-run China National Non-Ferrous Metals Import & Export Corporation, was appointed as a member of the board of directors. Song is now senior vice president strategic planning and is also responsible for China operations. [San Huan New Materials chairman Hong (Harry)] Zhang is the husband of Deng Nan, second daughter of China’s former premier, Deng Xiaoping. Deng Nan serves on the PRC State Council as vice minister of state for the Ministry of Science and Technology. Broad technology policy directives originating in the upper levels of the Communist Party hierarchy are fine-tuned and implemented by the State Council and its institutions.“
TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION IS A TOP GOAL FOR PRC
“The ministry oversees the ‘863 Program,’ an aggressive science and technology acquisition program first launched by Deng Xiaoping and funded and controlled by the Chinese government. It is formally known as the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China. Its name comes from the month (March) and year (1986) it was implemented.
“U.S. government reports indicate the ‘Super 863 Program’ (as it was called after 1996) calls for continued acquisition and development of technology in a number of areas of military concern, including machine tools, electronics, petrochemicals, electronic information, bioengineering, and nuclear research, aviation and space. …”
“SUPER 863″ IS A MILITARY THREAT TO U.S.
“About the 863 Program, the 1999 congressional Cox Report noted, ‘These projects could advance the PRC’s development of materials, such as composites, for military aircraft and other weapons.’ Potential dual-use of exotic materials acquisitions were said to be a key area of military concern.’ … According to Russia/China expert Dr. Alexandr V. [Nemetz], Chinese language explanations of 863 emphasize military goals above civilian goals. …”
RED CHINA – NOT IRAQ – IS THE REAL THREAT TO U.S. SECURITY AND SURVIVAL
“It is Nemetz’s opinions that since 1986, through its 863 Program, China has been developing post-nuclear superweapons using knowledge gained from the ‘dragnet’ of the eight fields of research.
“Nemetz, who refers to the West as ‘geostrategically lobotomized,’ has been highly critical of the Bush administration’s war on Iraq, faulting it for not focusing on what he considers to be the far greater threat of strategic developments in China.
” ‘Project 863 has at its disposal not only everything necessary for its development of non-machine post-nuclear superweapons, but also the scientific manpower of the entire world,’ said Nemetz. Nemetz is a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council and co-author of ‘Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics.’ A former student of the Moscow Institute of Steel and Alloys, Nemetz worked at the Presidium of Academy of Sciences USSR as an expert on the economic and technological development of China and Japan, and published several dozen articles and booklets in the Soviet scientific media. …
“In a January 2003 interview with [Insight writer Scott] Wheeler, Magnequench President Cox initially denied but later confirmed having a contract for the production of rare-earth magnets for the JDAM – the U.S. Joint Direct Attack Munitions project commonly referred to as ‘smart bombs.’ ” Source: Sherrie Gossett, WorldNetDaily.com, 8/12/03
BUSH TRADE POLICIES DIMINISH THE DOLLAR
“[T]he GOP House voted 270 to 156 for President Bush’s free-trade deal with Chile … consider what we got in this deal and what we gave up.
“Chile’s GDP of $70 billion is not even 1 percent of ours. Her per-capita GDP of $4,400 is one-eighth of ours. We have thus gained access to a tiny Latin market, while Chilean manufacturers just gained privileged access to the $10 trillion U.S. market, where consumers have a per-capita GDP of around $37,000.
“Moreover, to give the president his victory, Republicans had to put party interests on the shelf. For Democrats have lately begun to notice that under President Bush, one in every seven U.S. manufacturing jobs has vanished. U.S. manufacturing jobs have been disappearing at the rate of 75,000 a month for 34 months. U.S. workers in manufacturing are now fewer in number than in the 1950s and the smallest share of the labor force since the early 1800s.”
TRADE DEFICIT SINKS THE DOLLAR
“Why? Simple. As we import the products of foreign factories in record volume, we close our own factories and ship our jobs, our technology and our future abroad. In May, the U.S. trade deficit in goods was running at the astronomical rate of $562 billion a year. Because of that deficit, since Bush took office, the dollar has lost one-fourth of its value against the euro. …”
RED CHINA HAS REPLACED USA AS WORLD’S TOP CHOICE FOR FOREIGN INDUSTRY
“[W]ho has been the big winner….? No question about it. Beijing. Last year, China ran a $103 billion trade surplus with the United States. This year, her trade surplus is running at $120 billion, and China has surpassed America as the world’s premier recipient of foreign investment.”
BUSH HAS CREATED MILLIONS OF JOBS IN COMMUNIST CHINA
“Her trade surplus with America now accounts for 100 percent of China’s economic growth. Thus, it is unfair to say the president has not created any jobs. He has created millions of jobs in China, as he has presided over the loss of 2.6 million manufacturing jobs in the United States. …”
BEIJING USES OUR MONEY TO BUILD THEIR MILITARY
“According to a Pentagon report this week, China last year deployed and targeted 100 new missiles on Taiwan for a total of 450 and has begun a crash program to build longer-range missiles to strike and paralyze U.S. bases on Okinawa, Guam and South Korea.
“China’s buildup now includes home production of the Russian Su-27 and Su-30 fighter-bomber, eight new Kilo submarines with anti-ship cruise missiles and Sovremeny destroyers with supersonic Sunburn missiles, originally designed by Moscow to sink aircraft carriers. These missiles are being purchased with the Nimitz, the Truman, the Kennedy, the Lincoln and the Ronald Reagan in mind.” Source: Patrick J. Buchanan, WorldNetDaily.com, 8/4/03
CHINESE COMMUNISTS ARE ALREADY AT WAR WITH U.S. AND BUSH TRADE POLICIES FUEL THEIR “UNRESTRICTED WARFARE” STRATEGY
“The House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, State and the Judiciary held a hearing in May on ‘How Trade with China Affects American Manufacturing.’ At that hearing, the National Association of Manufacturers projected that in five years, the U.S. trade deficit with China would triple to more than $330 billion if current trends continued. Based on the first half of this year, the 2003 deficit with China will reach $120 billion, the largest and most lopsided deficit in the U.S. trade accounts.
“Since 1997, the U.S. trade position has deteriorated dramatically. That was the year of the global financial crisis that started in Asia, then spread to Russia and Latin America. That 1997 crisis threw many countries into recessions from which they have not recovered. The result has been smaller export markets for American goods and more aggressive efforts by distressed foreign producers to dump their goods into the U.S. market.
“China, however, has escaped the global downturn. In June, Chinese exports rose 33 percent from a year earlier to $34.5 billion, while production increased 17 percent, according to Beijing. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 27 percent in exports and a 13 percent rise in factory output.
“China set world events in motion when it devalued its currency in 1994, giving it a decided advantage over its trade rivals on the Pacific Rim. … Beijing has intervened on a massive scale to keep the yuan from being valued by the market.”
BEIJING ACCUMULATES DOLLAR RESERVES
“China is able to use the profits from its successful trade policy to maintain its advantage. Its trade surplus gives it the dollar reserves it needs for financial intervention. Between 1997 and March, 2003, its dollar reserves grew from $140 billion to $316 billion. It can invest these funds in U.S. Treasury debt, which is being issued at a brisk pace due to the expanding federal budget deficit. The budget deficit is largely the result of the slow American economic recovery, which in turn is hampered by the trade deficit. Thus the ‘twin deficits’ (trade and budget) work together for Beijing’s benefit.”
CHICOMS “OWN” AMERICA AND UNDERMINE U.S. MANUFACTURING
“And when China is involved, the dangers are not just commercial. Beijing’s strategy to undermine American industry while building up its own manufacturing base also works to shift the balance of power in Asia. So does undermining U.S. finances with the ‘twin deficits’ and beating down neighboring states in trade battles.”
UNLIKE THE SOVIETS, CHINESE REDS CAN THREATEN U.S. ECONOMICALLY
“In the seminal Chinese treatise on modern strategy ‘Unrestricted War’ by People’s Liberation Army Cols. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui published in 1999, the unfolding financial crisis is compared to military conflict: ‘Economic prosperity that once excited the constant admiration of the Western world changed to a depression, like the leaves of a tree that are blown away in a single night by the autumn wind. After just one round of fighting, the economies of a number of countries had fallen back 20 years. What is more, such a defeat on the economic front precipitates a near collapse of the social and political order. The casualties resulting from the constant chaos are no less than those resulting from a regional war.’
“It is also argued in ‘Unrestricted War’ that to attack another country’s economy, the aggressor ‘must adjust its own financial strategy, use currency revaluation or devaluation as primary, and combine means such as getting the upper hand in public opinion and changing the rules sufficiently to make financial turbulence and economic crisis appear in the targeted country or area, weakening its overall power, including its military strength.’ A weak American economy and rising budget deficits make it more difficult to provide the funds to modernize or expand the overstretched U.S. military, or to pay for overseas combat operations, or to finance nation-building in places like Iraq and Afghanistan.” Source: William R. Hawkins (U.S. Business and Industry Council), The Washington Times, 7/30/03, p. A14
